Throughout July this month, the domestic polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) market exhibited a operational pattern of "declining first, then rising, with a bottoming-out rebound."
In the first ten days (early July), the upstream raw material vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) price continued to decline, weakening cost support-this was the core bearish factor driving the market to test new lows. Although major production units maintained stable operations and producers focused on fulfilling contract and export orders, distributors' destocking progressed slowly. Supply at the circulation level remained ample, and holders faced mounting selling pressure. Compounding this, end-user demand was mired in the seasonal off-season doldrums, with downstream operating rates low. Beyond rigid contractual offtake, purchase intentions were virtually stalled. Intermediate traders frequently conceded margins to offload cargoes, leading to chaotic market quotations and a sustained downward drift in the negotiation center.
Entering the last ten days (late July), the cost side saw a sharp rally in VAM prices, flipping cost support from weak to strong and prompting the market to halt its decline and rebound. Despite the smooth commissioning of a new production facility in the southwest, spot circulation did not increase markedly, which emboldened holders to firm up offers in line with rising costs. However, demand-side weakness remained unchanged throughout-end-user industry operating rates showed no improvement, and downstream buyers displayed evident resistance to high prices, with actual transaction follow-through remaining limited.
Overall, this month's PVA market was first dominated by supply-demand imbalances, driving a deep decline, and later driven by cost-side restoration, prompting a corrective rebound. Yet, constrained by the seasonal demand trough, market participants maintained a cautious and watchful stance throughout the entire month.